Markit/BME Purchasing Managers’ Index, September 2011
The seasonally adjusted Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 50.3 in September, slightly above the neutral 50.0 mark, but down from 50.9 in August and the lowest reading for two years. The PMI was below its long-run average (52.3) and pointed to subdued business conditions in the German manufacturing sector.
September data indicated that output growth picked up only slightly from August’s 25-month low. Higher levels of production have been recorded in each month since July 2009, but the rate of expansion in September was much slower than that seen throughout the first half of 2011. Companies that reported a rise in output generally attributed this to increased work on existing projects as new business inflows weakened in the latest survey period. This also led to a drop in backlogs of work for the first time in just over two years.
Manufacturers in Germany indicated a decline in new order volumes for the third month running in September. The latest reduction was the fastest since June 2009. Anecdotal evidence suggested that weaker economic conditions, an uncertain outlook for global demand and concerns about the euro area debt crisis had all contributed to lower spending by clients in September.
Survey respondents also signalled the steepest decline in new export orders since mid-2009, with the pace of contraction faster than that recorded for total new business levels. All three market groups reported a fall in new work from abroad, and the sharpest rate of decline was in the intermediate goods sector.
Manufacturing employment increased at a solid pace in September, extending the current period of job creation to a year-and-a-half. Although the latest rise in staffing levels was robust compared with the survey’s historical trend, the rate of growth eased for the second month running and was the least marked since October 2010.
Lower levels of incoming new work meanwhile contributed to a marked reduction of input buying in the German manufacturing sector and a fall in stocks of purchases for the first time since March 2010. The latest drop in purchasing activity was the fastest since July 2009, and largely reflected a sharp decline in the intermediate goods sector. Softer demand for raw materials eased pressure on supply chains and led to a modest improvement in vendor performance in September, which ended a 25-month period of lengthening delivery times.
September data indicated that average input price inflation at German manufacturing firms was the weakest in the current 22-month period of rising cost burdens. Lower input price inflation has been recorded in each month since the survey-record high posted in February. This in turn contributed to another moderation in factory gate price inflation. The latest rise in output charges was the slowest for a year-and-a-half, which survey respondents also linked to stronger competition for new work in September.
Quelle: Markit/BME
